An AI-powered simulation run by a technology executive says that Coronavirus could infect as many as 2.5 billion people within 45 days and kill as many as 52.9 million of them. Fortunately, however, conditions of infection and detection are changing, which in turn changes incredibly important factors that the AI isn’t aware of.And that probably means we’re safer than we think.Probably being the operative word.
Rational or not, fear of Coronavirus has spread around the world.Facebook friends in Nevada are buying gas masks. Surgical-quality masks are selling out in Vancouver, Canada, where many Chinese have recently immigrated. United and other airlines have canceled flights to China, and a cruise ship with thousands of passengers is quarantined off the coast of Italy after medical professionals discovered one infected passenger.
The results so far have successfully predicted the following day’s publicly-released numbers within 3%, Ross says.The results were shocking. Horrific, even.
From 50,000 infections and 1,000 deaths after a week to 208,000 infections and almost 4,400 deaths after two weeks, the numbers keep growing as each infected person infects others in turn. In 30 days, the model says, two million could die. And in just 15 more days, the death toll skyrocket. But there is good news. The model doesn’t know every factor, which Ross knows.
And multiple doctors and medical professionals says the good news is that the conditions and data fed into the neural network are changing. As those conditions change, the results will change massively.One important change: the mortality rate.“If a high proportion of infected persons are asymptomatic, or develop only mild symptoms, these patients may not be reported and the actual number of persons infected in China may be much higher than reported